Monday the ES_F rallied from overnight lows of 1342.50 to 1375.25 in late afternoon, successfully filling the gap from Fridays close at 13.62.50.
The price action reminded me of the ISM release day when buyers were keeping the price action tight and vertical. The 1min charts from this prior post explain how remaining patient under such circumstances lead to an easily revealed turn (hindsight).
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I had a slight bias long this morning after the open bounced off the overnight lows. The opening range was lost in a big way however and took my buy at 94.5 past its stop no questions asked. (more…)
Todays trading the ES_F was a roller coster. Although I was expecting the bias to be to the upside, I was not expecting a large magnitude move through the OR. The price action was tipped off by the ISM data that came in at 10 a.m. EST and the morning action was difficult to plan a trade around. (more…)
Id like to compare two charts of the ES_F from Monday’s trading 4/30/12. I trade small size in the ES_F and it is sometimes difficult to hold onto positions for long this way, there can be little to no scaling of profits outside of the gate prior to meeting projected targets. Having to trade small in the ES can/has lead to hindsight trading, as range days can turn to trend days, trend days can last “forever” and chop days chop you up. Hindsight bias diminishes your edge. There is no guarantee what happens today or in the last hour will repeat itself tomorrow or later in the day. (more…)
I continue to work on correcting the mistakes that I make.
I like to take the contrarian trade and with that mindset I tend to be aggressive. Im sure that there may be other things that I am missing, but what I have come to realize immediately is that I tend to view too many indicators AFTER a trade is on. The focus that I gain prior to putting on a trade is lost after I have that trade on. (more…)
Time has flown, and so has the market.
I have not been on the right side of the trade, but mostly flat on my short positions as of today. Scary intraday red candles have not been victories for the bears. In fact it has been prudent to ignore every pullback in the ES_F since mid December.
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On 11/30 I began echoing a previous SDS trading plan to scale into SDS. With half position size on 12/6/11, I decided to double down my position in anticipation of a turning point.
12/6/11 I noticed some flattening in the price action of SDS as well as a nice bounce above the monthly pitchfork levels acting as support.
Today I found the volume in the DJT to flag further interest in an Elliott Wave count I had briefly explored only a few days prior.
Lately I have been bearish. The thought of a bullish continuation in the markets appears to be far from possible in the current environment, but the DJT has my attention and perhaps holds my only bullish bias on the market right now as crazy as it may be.
I am not a DOW theorist. That said I value the ability of markets to relay a powerful trend off the confirmation of the transports. Combining this confirmation principle with a possible correlating Elliott Wave count could conspire a large tell, or advantageous conviction, in a difficult market environment.
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I haven’t written specific analysis in a while and just wanted to jot down a run-through of my thoughts and two specific trades over the past month. Many of the specifics mentioned can be found in my StockTwits stream during this time period.
I had been trading TNA quite a bit over the summer, posting to the StockTwits stream, and using SDS and the ES_F to fine tune timing and execution.
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So far the EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis done in late May provided a fairly accurate road map for price action.
In mid July we noted that the 1.3838 level may be significant within the shorter term time frames move as the EURUSD was showing initial support at this level.
Breaking this low was noted possible and the 1.31 monthly time frame level could then be anticipated.
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I traded Sprint and Paetec Corp so far this week and entered a starter position in the SDS.
I did not disclose these positions on the stream, but they were tickers I did call attention to.
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I had set my expectations high for being in a bottomless market- unrightfully. Nevertheless there was a plan. Although it didn’t follow through, at least I did.
I will say, I should have heeded my earlier premonitions to keep my trading time frame shorter. This trade has come and gone, but I will review my thoughts below.
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I bought LEAP wireless on August 12, 2011 and sold on August 15, 2011.
Below are the factors that played into making this trade. This particular trade was based off of information gathered on StockTwits.
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The following is a short synopsis of the trade I took in TNA. I bought TNA on August 11, 2011 and sold at the end of day.
Entering this trade was based off of four factors.
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